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September 22, 2026

WASHINGTON, D.C.

Veterans for America First is warning that deteriorating economic and political conditions inside Iran could push the Islamic Republic toward a major regime crisis within the next 60 days.

Justin Schiro, Texas Media Relations Officer for Veterans for America First and a United States Army combat veteran who served in Afghanistan with the 10th Mountain Division, said the combination of economic contraction, severe inflation, currency depreciation, declining purchasing power, political unrest, and pressure on Iran’s ability to generate revenue creates an increasingly unstable environment.

“Iran is facing a convergence of problems that could prove extremely difficult for the regime to manage,” Schiro said. “The question is no longer simply whether Iran’s economy is struggling. The question is whether the economic crisis becomes a political crisis that the regime can no longer contain.”

Iran is facing substantial economic pressure.

Inflation and the declining value of the Iranian rial have reduced household purchasing power, while shortages and rising prices have increased pressure on ordinary Iranians.

Pressure on Iran’s oil sector and ability to generate foreign currency has also added to the government’s financial challenges.

Schiro said these economic conditions become particularly significant when combined with demonstrations, labor unrest, interruptions to essential services, and broader political grievances.

“The next 60 days could prove critical,” Schiro said. “We should be watching not one indicator, but whether several of these pressures begin moving together.”

KEY INDICATORS TO WATCH

1. CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF THE IRANIAN RIAL

Additional currency depreciation could accelerate inflation and make it increasingly difficult for Iranian households and businesses to purchase necessities, conduct trade, and operate normally.

2. INFLATION AND FOOD PRICES

Continued increases in the price of food and other basic necessities could intensify public dissatisfaction and contribute to further unrest.

3. OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS

Oil remains a critical source of revenue and foreign currency for Iran. Sustained disruption to Iranian oil exports could place additional pressure on government finances and Tehran’s ability to fund state operations.

4. NATIONWIDE STRIKES AND PROTESTS

A shift from localized demonstrations toward sustained nationwide strikes involving transportation, energy, manufacturing, government services, or other major sectors would represent a significant escalation.

5. GOVERNMENT AND SECURITY FORCE COHESION

One of the most consequential indicators would be evidence of serious divisions within the political establishment or changes in the willingness of security forces to carry out government orders.

6. THE GOVERNMENT’S ABILITY TO PROVIDE BASIC SERVICES

Major disruptions involving electricity, water, transportation, banking, fuel distribution, communications, or other essential services could deepen public frustration and place additional strain on the government.

“Economic crises do not automatically bring down governments,” Schiro said. “But history shows that governments can become particularly vulnerable when economic hardship is combined with sustained public unrest, divisions among political elites, and questions about the cohesion of the security apparatus.”

Veterans for America First believes the United States should closely monitor these developments while maintaining a strong national defense and protecting American interests.

Potential instability inside Iran could have consequences far beyond the country’s borders, including implications for American military personnel, U.S. allies and partners, international shipping, global energy markets, and the broader security environment in the Middle East.

“Nobody can know with certainty what will happen in Iran over the next 60 days,” Schiro said. “But the warning signs are serious enough that the United States should be prepared for the possibility of major political change. Whatever happens inside Iran, America must be ready to protect our service members, defend our interests, and respond to instability across the region.”

Veterans for America First is a grassroots organization founded by veterans and first responders that advocates for a strong national defense, veterans’ rights, border security, and candidates who share its America First principles.

Justin Schiro
Texas Media Relations Officer
Veterans for America First
United States Army Combat Veteran
Afghanistan Veteran
10th Mountain Division

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